January 20th 2025 - Donald Trump is BACK!

[OttoM]

I am not necessarily disagreeing with any of that. It has nothing to do with the letter we were discussing, but is an attempt by yourself to deflect and not have to consider anything I have said.

I'm not deflecting. I've read parts of the link you sent, but it's 100+ pages. To me it's irrelevant if it's real or not. The state of Israel is at war with Iran. And Europe has a major (and worsening) Islam problem:



What's Europe's problem? The leadership opened the floodgates for Muslims to enter into their countries. The Muslim household has more children and is more stable than the Christian household. The Christian women are trained to go to college and climb the corporate ladder. And the churches teach that if you sin (sleep around) - it's not the worst thing ever - you're under unlimited grace (just say a little prayer - once saved always saved). Then maybe in your 30's look into having a child. The Christian men are taught that looking at any woman with lust is adultery. Don't look - close your eyes - and go play video games in your parent's basement. And when you finally come out - the Europe they knew is long gone. They were deceived. Whose truly at fault? The deceivers or the one's that didn't even both to seek truth (like the noble Bereans). There are case study's of what happens to Christianity once Islam becomes the majority - all over the Middle East - and it's not pretty.

 

[FollowingHim]

I've read parts of the link you sent, but it's 100+ pages.

The article I am referring to is the first about 12 pages. That's all. And it includes a full copy of the actual original letter, which you'll find fascinating. I wouldn't read it either if it was a hundred pages long!

 

[steve]

He told us that Iran would be allowed to have nukes.
Campaign promises kept.

 

[MemeFan]

He told us that Iran would be allowed to have nukes.
Campaign promises kept.

Tom Luongo claims that Trump and Putin make a deal. Ukraine in exchange for Iran.

Now Trump has same issue with Iranians as Putin with Ukrainians. Looks like both got "Get lost" by "lesser powers".

 

[FollowingHim]

What you may all fail to recognize is what this whole Iran issue has done to Trump's global agenda, and the reputation of the USA. He has presented himself as the great deal-maker, someone who would resolve issues through honest dialogue. And what I am about to say has nothing to do with which side is in the right in the conflict - we cannot calmly discuss wars here, certainly not ones involving Israel, I am not commenting on that. I am solely pointing out how the world looks at Trump and the USA now.

Iran was involved in negotiations with the USA around the nuclear issue. Sure they had reached Trump's 60 day deadline, but he's made no end of tough-talking exaggerated threats as part of his negotiating strategy since being elected. There was another meeting planned for the next weekend, so the message being portrayed was that negotiations were still going on, and the 60 day deadline had just been a rhetorical tool.

These negotiations tricked Iran into a false sense of security, allowing Israel to assassinate key people in their beds, clearly with full US knowledge. It was a very successful and well executed strategy.

But attacking during negotiations like this is as close to perfidy as you can get without technically committing it.

As a result, no adversary will ever trust Trump to negotiate with them again. They won't trust a word he says, and will always be aware that the whole negotiation process might be a ruse. And not only obvious major adversaries - every country will be a little more cautious before believing the words of the USA.

This will deeply harm any future negotiation Trump attempts with anyone. It will also remove the USA from ever being considered a neutral party to mediate disputes between other countries. That harms your diplomatic position in the world.

The effect of this will be slow to appear. Things may seem normal for a while, even seem better than normal as fear causes people to tread carefully and not openly state their lack of trust. For now it will feel the USA is riding high on military success. But this is a tipping point which will hasten the US losing its central position in the international order.

 

[Mojo]

Iran was involved in negotiations with the USA around the nuclear issue. Sure they had reached Trump's 60 day deadline, but he's made no end of tough-talking exaggerated threats as part of his negotiating strategy since being elected. There was another meeting planned for the next weekend, so the message being portrayed was that negotiations were still going on, and the 60 day deadline had just been a rhetorical tool

I think this is the key phrase in your post.

Most of the other countries that get Trump’s rhetorical negation tools are seen as honest brokers that the US can reap key side benefits from if it allows for further deal making.

I don’t think Trump trusts Iran in the slightest. They were never going to get the benefit of the doubt. This was classic. FAFO.

Other nations will not be less willing to negotiate. They will be looking at deadlines much more carefully. Up to now, Trump has been seen as belicose and only interested in peace. I think he sees his heavy hand as a means to future peace “spare the rod...”

That being said....I hope he and all of our allies have a full proof plan to get out of this mess quickly and with near zero casualties on the US side. We yanks are tired of war, especially in someone else’s backyard.

 

[MemeFan]

What you may all fail to recognize is what this whole Iran issue has done to Trump's global agenda, and the reputation of the USA. He has presented himself as the great deal-maker, someone who would resolve issues through honest dialogue. And what I am about to say has nothing to do with which side is in the right in the conflict - we cannot calmly discuss wars here, certainly not ones involving Israel, I am not commenting on that. I am solely pointing out how the world looks at Trump and the USA now.

Iran was involved in negotiations with the USA around the nuclear issue. Sure they had reached Trump's 60 day deadline, but he's made no end of tough-talking exaggerated threats as part of his negotiating strategy since being elected. There was another meeting planned for the next weekend, so the message being portrayed was that negotiations were still going on, and the 60 day deadline had just been a rhetorical tool.

These negotiations tricked Iran into a false sense of security, allowing Israel to assassinate key people in their beds, clearly with full US knowledge. It was a very successful and well executed strategy.

But attacking during negotiations like this is as close to perfidy as you can get without technically committing it.

As a result, no adversary will ever trust Trump to negotiate with them again. They won't trust a word he says, and will always be aware that the whole negotiation process might be a ruse. And not only obvious major adversaries - every country will be a little more cautious before believing the words of the USA.

This will deeply harm any future negotiation Trump attempts with anyone. It will also remove the USA from ever being considered a neutral party to mediate disputes between other countries. That harms your diplomatic position in the world.

The effect of this will be slow to appear. Things may seem normal for a while, even seem better than normal as fear causes people to tread carefully and not openly state their lack of trust. For now it will feel the USA is riding high on military success. But this is a tipping point which will hasten the US losing its central position in the international order.

There was no trickery.

Deadline was 60 days. There was no deal on 61. day, the same day Israel attacked Iran.

What Trump is doing is not stopping talking when somebody starts shooting.

Regarding US - Israel relationship, Israel got hit with tariff, Netanyahu visited White House and left empty hands.

What is missing is that nobody has run to help Iran which means everybody (meaning states) is welcoming shutdown of Iran nuclear weapon program.

 

[Mojo]

What is missing is that nobody has run to help Iran which means everybody (meaning states) is welcoming shutdown of Iran nuclear weapon program.

Which was the whole purpose of visiting the Arab states and getting a hero’s welcome from the Saudis. None of the heavy hitters likes Iran and have a built in interest to see them falter. Saudis will start pumping oil like crazy to make up for the Iranian shortfall.

 

[MemeFan]

Which was the whole purpose of visiting the Arab states and getting a hero’s welcome from the Saudis. None of the heavy hitters likes Iran and have a built in interest to see them falter. Saudis will start pumping oil like crazy to make up for the Iranian shortfall.

Not falter. Make Iran normal again.

Don't forget, after revolution at start of 1980s Iranian elite decided to export revolution everywhere.

No wonder their neighbors don't like them.

 

[steve]

Tom Luongo claims that Trump and Putin make a deal. Ukraine in exchange for Iran.

Bullsnot
We all knew that Trump wasn’t going to rescue Ukraine while he was on the campaign trail, Putin knew it too.
So there was nothing to trade.
It did, though, have some interesting parallels especially with the timing.

Now Trump has same issue with Iranians as Putin with Ukrainians. Looks like both got "Get lost" by "lesser powers".

Not at all, Trump never had any intention of conquering Iran.
Putin had a list of requirements for Ukraine that he is incrementally taking from them.
Trump had one requirement that he appears to have accomplished in a few hours. He’s out. Yes, Iran will provide some pushback, but their focus is on the war that they are losing with Israel, which Iran themselves declared.

 

[steve]

Samuel, what I hope the world notices is that the US is no longer playing the regime change games.
Trump simply told Iran that they couldn’t have nuclear weapons and then he kept his promise.
If that doesn’t exemplify a serious negotiator, then nothing ever will.

 

[MemeFan]

Bullsnot
We all knew that Trump wasn’t going to rescue Ukraine while he was on the campaign trail, Putin knew it too.
So there was nothing to trade.
It did, though, have some interesting parallels especially with the timing.

Not at all, Trump never had any intention of conquering Iran.
Putin had a list of requirements for Ukraine that he is incrementally taking from them.
Trump had one requirement that he appears to have accomplished in a few hours. He’s out. Yes, Iran will provide some pushback, but their focus is on the war that they are losing with Israel, which Iran themselves declared.

It's not about conquering, but Ukraine refusing deal with Russia and Iran refusing deal with US.

 

[steve]

It's not about conquering, but Ukraine refusing deal with Russia and Iran refusing deal with US.

It did, though, have some interesting parallels

 

[FollowingHim]

I've made my point @steve, knowing you'll disagree at this stage, and I don't need to debate it. It will just be seen to be correct in a few years. Just as statements I made at the start of our Ukraine discussion proved correct also. There the ensuing debate served no purpose, and here it would serve none either.

 

[steve]

 

[The Revolting Man]

What you may all fail to recognize is what this whole Iran issue has done to Trump's global agenda, and the reputation of the USA. He has presented himself as the great deal-maker, someone who would resolve issues through honest dialogue. And what I am about to say has nothing to do with which side is in the right in the conflict - we cannot calmly discuss wars here, certainly not ones involving Israel, I am not commenting on that. I am solely pointing out how the world looks at Trump and the USA now.

Iran was involved in negotiations with the USA around the nuclear issue. Sure they had reached Trump's 60 day deadline, but he's made no end of tough-talking exaggerated threats as part of his negotiating strategy since being elected. There was another meeting planned for the next weekend, so the message being portrayed was that negotiations were still going on, and the 60 day deadline had just been a rhetorical tool.

These negotiations tricked Iran into a false sense of security, allowing Israel to assassinate key people in their beds, clearly with full US knowledge. It was a very successful and well executed strategy.

But attacking during negotiations like this is as close to perfidy as you can get without technically committing it.

As a result, no adversary will ever trust Trump to negotiate with them again. They won't trust a word he says, and will always be aware that the whole negotiation process might be a ruse. And not only obvious major adversaries - every country will be a little more cautious before believing the words of the USA.

This will deeply harm any future negotiation Trump attempts with anyone. It will also remove the USA from ever being considered a neutral party to mediate disputes between other countries. That harms your diplomatic position in the world.

The effect of this will be slow to appear. Things may seem normal for a while, even seem better than normal as fear causes people to tread carefully and not openly state their lack of trust. For now it will feel the USA is riding high on military success. But this is a tipping point which will hasten the US losing its central position in the international order.

I’m good with all of that. This Iran situation has been going on for decades. Iran has directly killed American troops and kidnapped American citizens. Iran was not negotiating in good faith. Iran was negotiating in order to gain time to accomplish jt goals. It’s goal were nefarious and evil.

The whole idea behind “America First” is that we’re not going to play by rules that no one else would. Iran having a nuclear weapon was bad for America. Iran doesn’t get to have a nuclear weapon. Please don’t act like the rest of the world wouldn’t impose something similar on America if it could.

This situation will not rebound against America because the whole premise, that there is some wellspring morality and brotherliness in international relations, is false.

Also, we now know indisputably that Russia and Chinese military support is a meaningless joke. Their weapons really are as laughably bad as we have always thought, dozens of the vaunted “hyper-sonic” missiles have been fired now and have only damaged apartment buildings and killed dozens of civilians. The Russian air defenses have proven to be worthless.

The world can move forward confident that we really do love in a uni-polar world. Expect a period of quiet and stability. I’m expecting a multi-decade period of relative calm and sanity.

 

[FollowingHim]

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said @The Revolting Man, but have to qualify this:

dozens of the vaunted “hyper-sonic” missiles have been fired now and have only damaged apartment buildings and killed dozens of civilians

It's a war and there is very tight control on information in Israel, some journalists have openly said they know a lot they are not permitted to publish. There have been many hits in Israel, about 5 a day on average, and only a fraction are publicized - those where they missed and hit a neighbouring civilian target. The military strikes are censored - every time there's a report that "a building was hit but we have no more information on it", that's a military target being hit. Other times the military targets are mislabelled as civilian, for instance strikes on military research facilities at the Chaim Weiseman Institute and Ben Gurion University have been reported as if these are purely civilian facilities, ignoring that the IDF is embedded in both (Iran is responding to attacks on its scientists by targeting Israeli military scientists). The interception rate is also dropping by the day, meaning that initially Iran had to launch 50 rockets a day to get 5 hits, now they have to launch less than 20 a day for the same result.

When the dust clears you'll find a lot of military targets have been hit.

And the reverse is true also, you'll find many civilian targets were hit in Iran also. Much was made of Iran hitting a hospital on the Ben Gurion University campus a few days (likely due to missing the IDF buildings on campus). But few people know that Israel hit a hospital in Iran three days earlier, that just never made the Western news.

Everything is propaganda.

 

[Man_in_the_Middle]

But few people know that Israel hit a hospital in Iran three days earlier, that just never made the Western news.

Everything is propaganda.

eh... We heard about the hospital... Maybe we just didn't react as some think we should have...

 

[steve]

Denying the enemy the pleasure of knowing that they have killed people is not a very high level of evil in my book.
Yes, it is a form of lying, I’ll freely admit that.

Meanwhile the war goes on.

 

[steve]

China isn’t going to be very happy if Iran tries to shut down the Strait of Hormus in retaliation.

Speaking of China, the source that I follow has been explaining that regime change is actually in process and the possibility is that the new regime will be more moderate.
Time will tell.

I wonder how secure they think that their enriched uranium stockpiles are nowadays?